2007 Predictions – Overall Tech Industry

Let’s move on to the tech industry which is looking to be a great year and the best since 1999.

Enterprise 2.0 will be the most over used phrase of 2007.
Since Web 2.0 has even made it to the cover of Time magazine, people are wondering how this will actually improve their businesses. This is why people pitching solutions to companies will hook on to the Enterprise 2.0 moniker. Much like the Internet when it became popular in the early to mid-1990’s the first way it made money was to the public user or consumer. Soon intranets became popular and then enterprise portals made web technologies have real impact on businesses. The same is happening now and companies will move en masse to be Enterprise 2.0 service providers.

Vista will not get adopted by IT departments and might suffer from the Osborne effect. It will be force fed to us in new systems purchased and not by IT companies looking to upgrade. They will want a real advantage and it looks like the next Microsoft OS revisions will have the WinFS and other stuff.

Search will move to niche markets. This is because Google is good for somethings but not all things. Many search engines are helping with specific areas like Jobster and

RSS Technology will evolve and a new technology will be launched on top of it. RSS is just too hard to work with and there will be a new technology that will sit on top of RSS making communication and content creation even easier.

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2007 Predictions-VC Market

As I get back in swing of blogging after a few months off, starting the new year with a predictions entry is a good way to start.

I thought I might do this topically to keep things organized. This is also going to be separate into easier digestible posts. Let’s get started with my outside looking in thoughts on the VC market.

Overall Venture Capital Markets
Deal flow will be steady but not bubble like. Increase and investment will grow at a steady 5-10% amount on average. As many VC’s continue to invest with a herd mentality, look for lots of “green investments” in clean technologies. Software will increase but media will be the darling after the YouTube exit. I believe that trends in social networking like Social Shopping, Social Search and Social Commerce will take it to the next level. Funding and M&A activity will be heavy.

More funds will go international. The amount of deal flow in the US is fine but those looking to make great strides will be going to India and China. This is supported by the NVCA survey (downloads pdf file) courtesy of the VentureBeat site.

The Carlyle Model becomes more popular. There are only so many companies that Google, Yahoo and Microsoft will want to buy. Carlyle Group has made a name for itself as a conglomerate and there will be more of a “Keiretsu revival” where instead of in the 90’s when people invested and then tried to tie them together, companies will form in order to buy established companies that will work well together. Why try and create another Yahoo when you can buy 15 companies that together make an even better one?

The IPO market will be almost back in full swing. The housing market will continue to crap out so people will be looking to put their money in the market again. This means IPOs but it doesn’t mean bubbles. People are smarter these days and companies will have to really be making money and have a real plan otherwise they should hope to be acquired by Google or a Hedge Fund.

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How did I do? Review of 2006 Predictions

I have read so many predictions for 2007 and it caused me to go back and look at my predictions for 2006.

Let’s see how close I got:
“2006 is going to be the year of Video” – With the acquisition of YouTube and all its competitors making waves with “User Generated Content” I got that one right.

2006 Apple Predictions
1.) Macworld is all about the Mac Mini and content announcements
I don’t see much here on the iPod horizon, but I do see Macworld being about content and distribution. This means that you are really limited by having content on your iPod. However, if you can download content, play it to your TV with your Mac Mini and dock you iPod to take it with you, well now that is scary.
WINNER – They announced iTV and will launch it at Macworld 2007

2.) Intel switch is not as huge as everyone thinks it is.
Everyone knows it is coming. Everyone believes that you will have a machine you can boot Linux/Windows and OS X (now really who would want to do that?). What it will really do is make machines a little faster and make people more comfortable about the platform.
The real winner? Application developers.
Because applications don’t need virtual PC to emulate Intel, companies will make applications for PC and Mac and will slowly erode the advantage of applications available for OS X. To be honest, I am getting ready to make the switch and in my opinion, almost everything is available for me to make the move.
LOSER – They announced it and the switch has improved market share and applications like Parallels has prompted switchers to move fast.

3.) Music prices will go dynamic
Because the record companies are breathing down Steve Job’s neck, he will move iTunes to a dynamic pricing model, with more expensive popular singles on their debut and moving down to $.99 and even lowering less popular songs in price.
LOSER – Never happened.

4.) G6 desktop in Q3 2006
I believe that once the Intel Powerbooks and iBooks are moved over in Q1 and Q2 to the Intel platform, it will be time for the G6 in a sweet quad configuration. This will allow enough time to port all of the powerful applications to the Intel Mac platform, Adobe CS3 will be out and written for this platform. All the children will rejoice.
Partial WINNER – They did announce the Macbook and Mac Pro. CS3 is planned for spring 2007 much to everyone’s dismay.

5.) Steve Jobs gets humble
I have to have one that will absolutely not come true…..
WINNER – Because I predicted it would never happen.

COMING NEXT… Predictions for 2007